The Current State of Affairs

Environmental realities, human consequences and the state of understanding

Environmental conditions are global in their causes and local in their consequences. This account sets out what the current evidence shows about those conditions, who encounters them and how, what remains uncertain, and what that means for education, research and governance. It reports the findings of others with their dates and limits; it does not replace them.

The question this account answers

What is happening, who is affected and what do we actually know?

GCCEI answers that question in three parts. It looks first at the conditions and the pathways through which people encounter them, then at the human consequences, and only then at how firmly each part is known. A condition can be well documented while its local consequence remains uncertain. A consequence can be serious even where its exact size is not known.

1. Environmental conditions and how people encounter them

Air

WHO estimates that in 2019, 99% of the world’s population lived in places where its air quality guideline levels were not met [C01]. This is a modelled exposure estimate. Exceeding a guideline is not the same as harm in a particular place, but it describes how widespread exposure has become.

Indoor air matters as well as outdoor air. WHO reports that around 2.1 billion people cook with polluting fuels or stoves; the page does not state the year of that figure [C03]. Here the pathway is short: the source is inside the home.

Waste

Waste becomes an environmental condition when it is not collected, is dumped or burned in the open, or is treated without adequate control. The World Bank’s What a Waste 3.0 (2026) reports 2.56 billion tonnes of municipal solid waste generated in 2022. It estimates that about one third of global waste goes uncollected or is openly dumped. Collection is as low as 31% in Sub-Saharan Africa and 67% in South Asia [C10].

UNEP’s Global Waste Management Outlook 2024, published with ISWA, uses a different method and base year. It puts 2023 municipal solid waste at 2.1 billion tonnes on its report page and 2.3 billion tonnes in its press release [C09]. The two publishers’ figures are given here side by side and are not compared to infer a trend.

Electronic waste is a smaller stream with a distinct chemistry. ITU and UNITAR report 62 million tonnes generated in 2022. Of that, 22.3% was documented as properly collected and recycled [C11]. The documented share is a floor, not a full account of what happened to the rest.

Climate and the cryosphere

WMO’s consolidation of six international datasets put 2024 at about 1.55 °C (±0.13 °C) above the 1850–1900 average. WMO also notes that one year above 1.5 °C does not by itself mean the Paris Agreement’s long-term goal has been missed [C08]. In the Hindu Kush Himalaya, ICIMOD’s March 2026 assessment reports glacier-area loss between 1990 and 2020 and faster mass loss after 2000 [R16]. These are different measures over different periods.

Pathways

None of these conditions reaches people directly. Pollutants travel, transform and deposit. They reach people through air, water, soil and food. Exposure depends on where people live, work, learn and play, and for how long. For that reason GCCEI reads a stack measurement, an ambient reading and an exposure estimate as answers to different questions. See From Stack to Environment, Soil, Water and Food-Chain Pathways and Stack Monitoring, Ambient Monitoring and Environmental Evidence.

2. Human consequences

Health

The State of Global Air 2024, produced by the Health Effects Institute in partnership with UNICEF, estimates that air pollution accounted for 8.1 million deaths globally in 2021 [C02]. WHO’s separate estimate for outdoor air pollution alone is 4.2 million premature deaths in 2019, about 89% of them in low- and middle-income countries [C01]. The two figures measure different things, for different years, with different models. They are not alternatives to each other.

Children

UNICEF notes that children’s developing bodies make it harder for them to cope with physical and psychological stresses [C06]. GCCEI therefore treats children’s circumstances as a distinct question, not as a subset of adult exposure. See Vulnerable Populations and Environmental Exposure.

• Air pollution. The State of Global Air 2024 links more than 700,000 deaths of children under five in 2021 to air pollution, 15% of all deaths in that age group [C02]. WHO attributes over 309,000 deaths of children under five in 2021 to household air pollution [C03].
• Climate hazards. UNICEF’s Children’s Climate Risk Report 2026 estimates that 1.1 billion children, nearly half the world’s children, are exposed to at least three of the eight overlapping climate hazards it assesses. It also finds that almost every child faces at least one [C06]. This is a modelled exposure assessment based on a 100-year return period.
• Lead. UNICEF and Pure Earth estimated in 2020 that around one in three children, up to 800 million, had blood lead levels at or above 5 µg/dL, and that nearly half of them lived in South Asia [C05]. This is a modelled estimate that is now six years old.
• An older reference point. In 2017 WHO attributed more than one in four deaths of children under five to unhealthy environments [C04]. The release does not state its data year, and the estimate should be read as historical context.

Differences between territories

The same global mechanism produces different local consequences. GCCEI’s six regional cases show this with dated sources:

• glacier and snow change in the Hindu Kush Himalaya;
• open disposal and collection gaps in Africa;
• air pollution as a shared airshed in South Asia;
• heat and water scarcity in the Middle East and North Africa;
• the remaining waste question despite mature infrastructure in Europe;
• landfill methane and continuing evidence needs in North America.

UNICEF’s 2026 report gives its own examples. Children in the Sahel face combined heatwaves, extreme heat and sand and dust storms. Children in Bangladesh, Myanmar and Pakistan face more hazards at once, and at higher intensity, than children anywhere else. In 24 Small Island Developing States, every child is exposed to tropical storms [C06].

These are examples, not a ranking. UNICEF’s earlier Children’s Climate Risk Index (2021) did rank 163 countries, classifying 33 as extremely high-risk [C07]. The 2026 report’s public summary describes a risk framework rather than a ranking, so this account does not describe it as one.

3. What the evidence establishes, what is uncertain, what is missing

Established with confidence. Exposure to air pollution above WHO guideline levels is close to universal. Air pollution is a major contributor to illness and death at population level. Waste that is uncollected, dumped or burned in the open is a source of pollution, and collection remains far from complete in several regions. Global temperature in 2024 was the highest on record. Glacier mass loss in the Hindu Kush Himalaya has been faster since 2000 than before.

Estimated, with stated uncertainty. The number of deaths attributable to air pollution, the number of children with elevated blood lead and the number of children exposed to multiple climate hazards are modelled estimates. They depend on exposure data, exposure-response assumptions and the chosen period. They describe populations, not individuals. A source-specific health effect at a particular place needs its own evidence or modelling, with its uncertainty stated; protective action need not wait for diagnosed harm. See Hazard, Exposure and Risk and Air Pollution and Public Health.

Projected. Municipal waste is projected to reach about 3.8 to 3.9 billion tonnes by 2050 under current trends [C09] [C10]. E-waste is projected to reach 82 million tonnes by 2030 [C11]. Projections describe a path if trends continue, not a forecast of what will happen.

Missing or unresolved.

• Major publishers give different totals for the same waste stream.
• Several widely quoted figures are years old or do not state their data year.
• Local monitoring is uneven; ICIMOD, for example, identifies gaps in field monitoring across the Hindu Kush Himalaya [R16].
• Child-specific evidence is rarely available for a particular territory.

Where information is missing, this account says so instead of filling the gap.

4. Progress, effective responses and persistent deficiencies

Progress is real but uneven. In the EU-27, inventory reporting shows lower waste-sector greenhouse-gas emissions in 2022 than in 1990, with lower landfill methane an important contributor. This is a defined reporting scope, not a result for every place in Europe [R24]. Canada has adopted landfill methane regulations whose control obligations begin in 2028, 2029 or 2035 for different categories [R26]. Regulation adopted is not yet regulation operating.

The deficiencies are equally clear:

• Collection remains incomplete where waste is growing fastest [C10].
• Less than a quarter of e-waste is documented as properly recycled [C11].
• Exposure to polluted air remains near universal [C01].

UNEP estimated the direct global cost of waste management at about USD 252 billion in 2020, rising to USD 361 billion when the hidden costs of pollution, poor health and climate change are included [C09].

An effective response depends on the material, the place and the alternative. GCCEI does not treat any technology name as a conclusion. See Segregation and Collection and Open Dumping and Open Burning.

5. Implications for education, research, responsibility and governance

Education. UNESCO reports that an analysis of 100 national curriculum frameworks found 47% did not mention climate change. It also reports that only one third of teachers surveyed felt able to explain the effects of climate change in their regions [C12]. Children are inheriting conditions that many school systems do not yet explain.

Research. The gaps identified above are research questions in their own right:

• local exposure;
• child-specific evidence;
• reconciled waste statistics;
• monitoring where it is sparse.

Institutional responsibility. GCCEI’s findings must remain capable of supporting, qualifying or rejecting an engineering assumption, including those of its related institution, GCCEG. See GCCEI and GCCEG.

Governance. Decisions are often made before evidence is complete. Good governance states what is known, what is assumed and what would change the decision. See Environmental Responsibility Across Generations.

6. A shared foundation and local learning

The mechanisms are the same everywhere: how pollutants travel, how waste becomes pollution, how climate affects snow, ice and water. That makes a shared educational foundation possible across countries and languages. The consequences differ by place. The GCCEI position is that a common foundation should be complemented by learning about local circumstances:

• the air a school’s pupils breathe;
• where local waste goes;
• which water sources a community depends on.

Local learning should rely on local evidence wherever it exists, and say plainly where it does not. This is an institutional position, not a measured finding. UNESCO’s guidance on multilingual education supports teaching in a language learners understand [R29]. See Why Environmental Understanding Must Begin Early, Why Multilingual Environmental Education Matters and Measuring Whether Environmental Education Actually Works.

How to read this account

• Observed: measured or compiled from observations, such as the 2024 temperature record.
• Estimate: modelled from data and assumptions, such as attributable deaths and the number of exposed children.
• Projection: a path if current trends continue, such as 2050 waste.
• Interpretation: GCCEI’s own judgement, written as such, such as the case for a shared foundation with local learning.

The editorial date of this account is given above. Each source’s publication date and data period are given below. A recent publication can contain older data.

Current Insights · Global Challenge → Local Consequence · Research · The Academy

Selected sources and scope

Sources support the figures and assessments cited; they do not endorse GCCEI. Checked on 19 October 2026 from official pages and summaries.

1. C01 · WHO: Ambient (outdoor) air pollution. Fact sheet, 24 October 2024. Data: 2019, global. Modelled estimates; guideline exceedance is not local harm.
2. C02 · State of Global Air 2024. Health Effects Institute with UNICEF; IHME Global Burden of Disease data. June 2024. Data: 2021, global. Modelled estimates; not a ranking.
3. C03 · WHO: Household air pollution and health. Fact sheet, 16 December 2025. Deaths: 2021; year of the cooking-fuel figure not stated.
4. C04 · WHO: The cost of a polluted environment. 6 March 2017. Data year not stated; historical reference only.
5. C05 · UNICEF and Pure Earth: The Toxic Truth. July 2020. Modelled from IHME data; global, with regional breakdown.
6. C06 · UNICEF: The Children’s Climate Risk Report 2026. June 2026. Latest available hazard data; probabilistic model, 100-year return period. Risk framework and examples; not described as a ranking on the pages read.
7. C07 · UNICEF: Children’s Climate Risk Index. August 2021. Composite index ranking 163 countries; superseded in method by C06.
8. C08 · WMO: 2024 confirmed as warmest year on record. 10 January 2025. Data: 2024 against 1850–1900; six datasets.
9. C09 · UNEP and ISWA: Global Waste Management Outlook 2024. 28 February 2024. Data: 2020 (costs), 2023 (generation); projection to 2050. Report page and press release give different 2023 totals.
10. C10 · World Bank Group: What a Waste 3.0. 2026. Data: 2022; 217 countries and economies; projection to 2050. Not directly comparable with C09.
11. C11 · ITU and UNITAR: Global E-waste Monitor 2024. 20 March 2024. Data: 2022; projection to 2030. Documented recycling only.
12. C12 · UNESCO: Greening curriculum guidance. 2024, citing a 2021 analysis of 100 national curriculum frameworks. Mention is not a measure of teaching quality.
13. R16 · ICIMOD: Hindu Kush Himalaya glacier assessments. 18 March 2026. 1990–2020 glacier area; post-2000 mass loss; monitoring gaps.
14. R24 · EEA: Circular-economy and waste-sector mitigation benefits. Inventory comparisons through 2022; EU-27 waste-sector boundary.
15. R26 · Environment and Climate Change Canada: Landfill Methane Regulations. 13 February 2026. Phased obligations from 2028, 2029 or 2035.
16. R29 · UNESCO: Multilingual education to unlock learning and inclusion. 18 February 2025. Education design guidance.